Gartner analysts presented business trends that will be taken into account when making business and technology decisions over the next three years

Experts from the research and consulting company Gartner presented a study that describes the top ten strategic technology trends in 2024. Following these trends will improve business sustainability, maximize the value of data, attract and retain talent, achieve sustainable development goals, and stimulate growth and acceleration of digital business. Xu Techs tells what these trends are.

Technology Trends Map

Gartner presented a map that shows how each trend relates to one or more key business themes: protecting and preserving past and future investments, making the right decisions at the right time, and delivering value to a changing environment for both internal and external customers.

Tech trends map 2024 (Photo: gartner.com)
The map includes 10 trends: AI Trust, Risk and Security Management (AI TRiSM), Continuous Risk Management (CTEM), Sustainable Technologies, Platform Development, AI Development, Industry Cloud Platforms, Smart Applications, Generative AI Democratization, Advanced Connected labor and machine clients. Let’s take a closer look at them.

Investment protection
Gartner analysts note that the sustainable impact of technology investments is ensured by focused efforts, calculation of payback and foresight in their implementation. The following IT trends fall into this category:

AI Trust, Risk and Safety Management (AI TRiSM);
continuous risk management (CTEM);
industry cloud platforms;
sustainable technologies;
democratizing generative AI.
Managing AI Trust, Risk and Safety
Generative AI has generated widespread interest in AI pilot projects, but organizations often don’t consider the risks until AI models or applications are put into practice. A comprehensive AI trust, risk, and security management program proactively integrates governance and ensures AI systems are compliant, fair, reliable, and protects data privacy.

TRiSM for risk management offers model explainability and monitoring tools, ModelOps agile management, and AI security and privacy tools.

Gartner predicts that by 2026, the AI ​​models of organizations that implement TRiSM will achieve 50% improvement in terms of business goals and user acceptance.

Continuous risk management
The Continuous Risk Management program independently identifies and prioritizes cyber threats to the business. It allows businesses to continuously and consistently assess the accessibility of its physical and digital assets to hackers, as well as their susceptibility to attack.

Step-by-step implementation of the STEM program (Photo: gartner.com)
Gartner believes that by 2026, organizations that prioritize security technology investments based on continuous risk management programs will be three times less likely to experience a breach.

Industry cloud platforms
Industry-specific cloud platforms are designed to address the specific needs of industry segments that are underserved by generic solutions. Such platforms combine the capabilities of software as well as platform and infrastructure as a service (IaaS). They are based on public cloud services, but offer industry players a more flexible way to manage workloads.

In a 2022 Gartner survey of North American and European enterprises, nearly 40% of respondents said they had already begun implementing industry cloud platforms, with another 15% piloting them. Analysts expect that by 2027, enterprises will use industry cloud platforms to accelerate more than 50% of their critical business initiatives. In the future, they will transform into ecosystem clouds where enterprises will be able to conduct business processes such as procurement, distribution, payment processing, and perhaps even present R&D and innovation.

Smart apps
Intelligent applications offer new experiences to customers, users, product owners and developers. Their implementation provides a link between continuous analytics and decision-making, and also provides significant opportunities through the implementation of chatbots and smart interfaces. All this increases automation and enables dynamic business transformation.

AI applications in business (Photo: gartner.com)
Gartner analysts predict that by 2026, 30% of new applications will use AI. Conventional insurance companies will implement AI to assess property damage risks, and auto insurers will implement AI to assess driver behavior.

Sustainable Technologies
AI models are trained using energy-intensive servers in data centers (DPCs), which increase carbon emissions. Data centers where AI is trained already account for about 2% of all US electricity consumption. A compromise might be to combine “AI for sustainability” with “AI sustainability.” Analysts believe that the following measures need to be taken to implement it:

implement composite AI that works like the human brain and uses knowledge graphs, cause-and-effect networks and other “symbolic” representations to more effectively solve a wide range of business problems;
monitor energy consumption during machine learning and stop it when the costs are no longer justified;
store model training data locally to reduce power consumption and increase data privacy;
reuse already trained models and introduce more energy-efficient equipment;
regulate AI workloads depending on region, time of day, weather conditions and other factors;
use clean energy in the data center and model the environmental impact and business benefits when developing an AI strategy.
Analysts predict that by 2027, 80% of CIOs will focus on performance metrics tied to the sustainability of their organization.
Unlocking the value of communities
Gartner analysts believe that in 2024, businesses need to tap into the creativity of the many communities creating applications and other solutions. Steps to this will include adopting industry technologies that meet the specific needs of the organization and professionals, developing a roadmap for non-experts, and working closely with business stakeholders to deliver software. The following IT trends correspond to this:

platform development;
development using artificial intelligence technologies;
industry cloud platforms;
smart applications;
sustainable technologies;
democratizing generative AI.
Platform development
Platform design improves the developer experience and productivity because they can work independently with automated processes and have their needs served by a dedicated team of engineers. At the same time, the end user receives the finished product faster, and development and implementation are cheaper. Gartner expects 80% of software organizations to have platform teams by 2026.

AI Development
Analysts note that software engineers can use AI for mission-critical activities throughout the software development lifecycle, from planning to testing. AI is already capable of writing code, translating it into different programming languages, modernizing applications and calculating their costs, developing application design, and much more.

AI capabilities in development (Photo: gartner.com)
According to analysts, by 2026 generative AI will significantly change 70% of the design and development processes of new applications.

Delivering Value
Analysts note that adapting business to changing customer requirements will improve the quality of service to stakeholders and increase revenue. This will be facilitated by algorithm-based approaches, as well as access to rapidly evolving digital tools. The following trends correspond to them:

machine clients;
an expanded connected workforce;
smart applications;
sustainable technologies;
democratizing generative AI.
Machine clients
Machine clients are devices with artificial intelligence that can potentially also act as consumers of services, for example acting as a voice assistant (ordering food, etc.). As the market for such devices grows, Gartner analysts advise companies to make information about products and services easily accessible to AI customers at any stage of the purchase. This will be facilitated by:

open access to API (hardware and software), as well as the introduction of anti-bot tools;
leveraging all digital touchpoints, including social media, mobile apps and chatbots, and creating a customer platform for simplified interactions and payments;
developing partnerships between sales, marketing, supply chain, IT and analytics departments that will allow us to consider different scenarios of consumer behavior and make the supply chain flexible enough to respond to unexpected demand trends;
training sales and service personnel to work with AI agents. Employees must understand the algorithms that determine customer purchasing behavior;
training staff to identify car buyers.
Analysts predict that by 2026, car customers will be able to independently choose from competing products the owner needs, and by 2036, they will be able to independently select different products, analyzing the owner’s needs.

Expanded Connected Workforce
Generative artificial intelligence will change the way companies organize jobs and distribute responsibilities. According to analysts, this challenge will be solved by generative micro-applications – a technology that will allow organizations to demonstrate the value of generative AI while minimizing business risks. They will act as a proxy between the user and a larger language model such as ChatGPT or Bard .

Gartner predicts that by 2026, 50% of office workers at Fortune 100 companies will be working with AI in some form, either to increase productivity or improve the quality of work. For example, when an author drafts a new study, a microapplication in a word processing program will activate a built-in library of prompts to prompt the AI ​​for examples of supporting research and data, as well as examples of contradictory research.

Almost all science fiction writers described the image of the car of the future. Kirill Zhanaidarov, head of the transport department of the Skolkovo Foundation, tried himself in this role and imagined what transport would be like in 30 years

In 2023, Xu Techs 4 years old. As part of the anniversary, we decided not to look back to the past, but rather to look forward to the future.

The Xu Techs team is taking up the initiative: columns by visionaries from the fields of science, education, technology, society, ecology, and education will appear on the project website . Together with them, we will try to imagine how the world will change within 30 years, what it will be like in 2053, and what place people will occupy in it. The project does not imply accurate forecasts; together with experts, we are trying to imagine possible directions and scenarios for the development of our society, based on current trends.

Current trends: abandonment of personal transport and driverless cars
Before talking about possible trends and technologies in the coming decades, it is necessary to note the fact that the future has already arrived. Self-driving trucks transport cargo along busy highways and operate in harsh climates. Robots are driving taxis. Electric cars are taking over the market. In every more or less large city there are all kinds of transport rental services: bike sharing, car sharing, kick sharing, carpooling, ride sharing. New models of public transport use are emerging. The car itself turns from a means of transportation into a multifunctional gadget. It acquires more and more independent functions and is able to “communicate” with the external environment.

All types of rentals
Almost all advanced technologies that are being actively implemented in the transport sector today hint to us that over time we will completely abandon personal vehicles. There are several reasons for this. Owning a personal vehicle is already more expensive than using a taxi or car sharing. The second important point is efficiency. A personal car is used on average one to two hours a day, and most of the time is idle, taking up already scarce urban space. The sharing vehicle now travels up to eight hours a day.

Drones in b2b
Another obvious trend of tomorrow is self-driving technology. The introduction of unmanned vehicles did not begin today or even yesterday: the first prototypes were created in the middle of the 20th century, and began to be fully implemented after technological competitions such as the “Winter City” from Skolkovo, RVC and NTI.

The introduction of unmanned vehicles in the b2b segment is progressing by leaps and bounds. The volume of the Russian drone market at the end of last year amounted to about ₽14.7 billion, and over the horizon of 5–7 years, the maximum market capacity under an optimistic scenario could grow to ₽500 billion. This forecast is given by experts from the state corporation VEB.RF.

In June 2023, the commercial transportation of goods along the M-11 federal highway between Moscow and St. Petersburg was launched by KAMAZ and SberAvtoTech teams. Unmanned trucks are already working in quarries, transporting cargo in permafrost and inside logistics centers. The main task of robots is to relieve humans from routine work. In addition, all people need rest, and the right to days off is enshrined in law. Robots cannot get tired, they don’t get sick, and they don’t need vacation. The economic effect of using robots is obvious.

The key builders of the drone market, according to experts, will be technology holdings that gather the main players around them. Thus, the BAS Consortium (created by Russian Post and Skolkovo Capital) and other operators being created will expand the demand for production and will invest in the entire value chain – from development and production to services.

Separately, it is necessary to highlight urban cleaning equipment. The demand for its services will also only grow. At the end of summer, a new Center for Urban Robotics will be launched on the Skolkovo territory. It is designed to structure the market for robots in the field of maintaining the urban environment and teach them to work effectively together.

Drones in b2c
Representatives of the business community are interested in unmanned cargo transportation, and ordinary people want unmanned taxis. In the summer, Yandex launched an unmanned taxi service and transports passengers in the Moscow Yasenevo district, which has become a kind of testing ground within the city.

Many people are interested in what problems and pitfalls operators and developers face at the stage of testing unmanned taxis. Robots are quite successful at driving a car in urban traffic conditions, but sometimes some problems arise when interacting with a person. People sometimes make spontaneous decisions. For example, getting out of the vehicle before reaching the final point of the route. The robot must be able to respond to such spontaneous needs and quickly make decisions, and the person, in turn, must follow the rules for using an unmanned taxi. There are also cases of vandalism by people and force majeure situations when a person suddenly becomes ill in the taxi cabin. Taking these points into account, I would focus on training cars in the format not “robot – road”, but “robot – passenger”.

Every day we see an increasingly large-scale penetration of unmanned technologies into various types of transport. Rail transport, along with the logistics sector, can be automated in the near future. I am also confident that in the foreseeable future we will be able to ride on an unmanned water bus.

Flying cars
The icing on the cake of all unmanned transport is the air taxi. We have seen flying cars in many science fiction films of the past. Today we are closer than ever to the real implementation of this technology. The vertical take-off vehicle market is growing at a rate that is significantly faster than previously predicted. Vertical take-off and no need for a runway are obvious advantages for the city. At the same time, there are a number of technological problems that need to be solved. It is necessary to ensure a good flight range (given the heavy batteries) and stability of the vehicle. It is necessary to develop and implement an unmanned control system. Another important point is the flight corridors. We really wouldn’t want cars to fall on the heads of people walking along the street in the event of an emergency, so it’s important to create new transport corridors. For example, using rivers for flights, at least at the first stage, then, apparently, railway lines and roads will be added.
Will all drivers be left without work?
What about the drivers? Will robots and artificial intelligence take jobs away from people? Such questions are very popular today. The answer, in my opinion, is obvious. The disappearance of coachmen and cab drivers at the beginning of the 20th century did not bring down the world, but, on the contrary, led to the evolution of the profession. Technological progress has always accompanied us and encouraged people to learn and master new tasks. Unmanned technologies are provoking the emergence of hundreds of new companies and thousands of high-tech jobs in related areas, where the development of a component base, smart mobility services, IT solutions and much more is being carried out.

What will the transport of the future be like?
Summarizing all of the above, let’s try to highlight the key criteria for transport and transport infrastructure of tomorrow. The first criterion for the transport of the future is self-driving. The second is the modularity of the car design. It will have a single platform that will allow you to quickly implement any solution within its functionality. The versatility of the platform is the basis of new mobility.

Another criterion is the electric motor. We are already seeing a steady growth in the production and sales of electric vehicles around the world. Absolutely all automakers in Russia have announced plans to produce electric vehicles and components for them. Perhaps someday engineers will be able to use hydrogen fuel cells, which will reduce the weight of the car and increase the length of the trip on a single charge.

Infrastructure for the transport of the future
Having a car, and even an unmanned one, requires appropriate infrastructure. Thus, the transition to electric transport requires a high speed of refueling the vehicle. The power of charging stations is constantly growing. I think that within ten years, electric cars will charge as quickly as gasoline-powered cars charge today. In this direction, I can mention the Skolkovo resident company Yablochkov. She recently presented a prototype of contactless charging. Mobile mobile charging stations for emergency recharging of electric vehicles and battery recycling systems will also be in demand. The electric car, like the drone, will create a large number of sub-industries.

In general, when thinking about the transport of the future, it is quite difficult to make long-term forecasts. The possibilities of humanity are almost limitless. We easily accept new technologies and create them. It is quite possible that someday the surface of the Earth will be accessible only to people, and all transport will go into underground high-speed tunnels under cities. I also do not rule out that flying unmanned electric cars in 50 years will be as affordable as renting a bicycle or electric scooter is today.

In the past few years, people have often discussed the possibility of a collision between the Earth and a celestial body. Xu Techs understands what asteroids are, how they appear and whether they can destroy all life

What are asteroids

Asteroids are hard, rocky bodies that orbit the Sun. In this way they repeat the behavior of the planets, but cannot be called that because of their small size. They belong to the category of “small solar system bodies.” Although there are millions of them , their total mass is less than that of the Moon.

Asteroids formed about 4.6 billion years ago, during the early formation of the solar system. Then the future planets experienced the stage of “ planetesimals ”. During this period, small cosmic particles are gradually attracted to each other, the temperature in the center increases, due to which they melt and a protoplanet is formed . Today’s asteroids are “by-products” of that process. Scientists suggest that many planetary satellites are former asteroids that were “captured” by the gravitational field of a large object, forcing them to rotate around it.

History of the discovery of asteroids

Asteroids were discovered by accident: in 1801, Italian astronomer and priest Giuseppe Piazzi discovered the largest of them and named it Ceres after the Roman goddess of fertility. It now qualifies as a dwarf planet. Since then, scientists began to regularly find asteroids: by the second half of the 19th century, the number of recorded objects exceeded 100, by 1921 – over 1 thousand, and by 1981 – over 10 thousand. Now this number exceeds 800 thousand. In 1980 , the hypothesis that it was the impact of an asteroid about 66 million years ago that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.

According to scientists, this asteroid landed in the area of ​​modern Mexico. Most amphibians could die within a few hours or days after the fall due to a sharp increase in ambient temperature. This collision could cause irreversible climate change, increase acidity in the atmosphere and change the composition of the oceans.

Astronomer Vladimir Surdin – about whether humanity will die from a collision with an asteroid

Chemical composition and color of common asteroids

Scientists divide asteroids into classes depending on their composition. This is what the three most common ones look like :

Class C asteroids. Color: grayish. They consist of carbon and a number of other substances, including silicon. This is the most common type, comprising about 75% of all asteroids.

S class asteroids. Color: greenish or reddish. Consist of silicon, nickel and iron. The second most common type includes about 17% of all asteroids.

M class asteroids. Color: reddish. Consist of nickel and iron. Remains of metallic cores of planetesimals.

Where are the asteroids located?

Most of the solar system’s asteroids are located in the main asteroid belt, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. More than 200 asteroids with a diameter of more than 100 km, from 1.1 million to 1.9 million with a diameter of more than 1 km, and millions of small ones circulate in it . As scientist Vladimir Busarev writes , here they move in a “safe” zone, where the gravitational influence of large planets on them is minimal.

It was because of Jupiter that another planet could not arise in the place of the main asteroid belt during the birth of the Solar System. Its gravitational field prevented the formation of planetesimals nearby, so the particles did not connect and continued to move around the Sun in the form of asteroids.

Largest groups of asteroids

Asteroids are located in the Solar System not only in the main asteroid belt.

“Trojans” and “Greeks” , which were named after the heroes of the Iliad, are located at the “Lagrange points”. In these parts of space, the gravitational influence of the planet and the Sun is equal. Jupiter has the most “Trojans” and “Greeks” – more than 10 thousand.

Neptune has 30, Mars has nine, and Earth and Uranus have one each.

The Hilda Family contains more than 1 thousand Trojan-like asteroids. It is located beyond the main belt between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.

The Kuiper Belt is located at the edge of the solar system, near Neptune. It is similar to the main asteroid belt, but differs in size: 20 times wider and 20–200 times more massive. It contains small bodies of water, ammonia and methane and at least four dwarf planets, to which modern science includes Pluto.

• Location diagram of the main asteroids of the Solar system
• Asteroids and comets: similarities and differences

A comet differs from an asteroid only in composition: star dust and ice instead of metals. When approaching the Sun, substances begin to evaporate, due to which the famous “tails” are formed.

A meteorite is an asteroid or its fragment that has reached the surface of the Earth. About 20 meteorites hit our planet every day . They are not dangerous, since in the overwhelming majority their size does not exceed a stone that can be held in the palm of your hand.

According to NASA , meteorites that can destroy a city or cause a devastating tsunami collide with the Earth every 1,000 to 10,000 years.

Large meteorites, 400 m in diameter, capable of causing a global cataclysm, hit our planet on average every 100 thousand years. Nevertheless, scientists are exploring all options to combat the potential threat.

The largest asteroids

Asteroids are difficult for researchers to measure because of their irregular shapes and varying albedo (surface reflectivity). If you count by approximate diameter, the top ten will look like this:

Ceres, 946 km
Vesta, 525 km
Pallada, 512 km
Hygiea, 431 km
Interamnia, 326 km
Europe, 315 km
David, 289 km
Sylvia, 286 km
Cybele, 273 km
Eunomia, 268 km

Asteroid research methods

In 1991, NASA’s Galileo probe sent back close-up images of main belt asteroids to Earth.
In 2001, another agency space probe, NEAR Shoemaker , successfully soft- landed on the asteroid Eros for the first time in history . After working there for two weeks, he stopped communicating.

In 2006, the Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa (translated as “Falcon”) landed, took samples, and then took off from the Itokawa asteroid. In 2010, he returned to Earth.

In 2019, Hayabusa2 successfully landed on the distant asteroid Ryugu, which is located 280 million km from Earth. In 2020, a capsule with soil samples collected by the probe arrived on Earth.

In October 2021, NASA sent the Lucy mission , which will study the Trojans for more than 10 years.

“An asteroid is approaching Earth! What to do?”

In 1998, American congressmen asked NASA to record all asteroids and comets with a radius of 1 km or more that could be in Earth’s orbit. Since then, NASA astronomers have discovered 95% of asteroids, and some of them could hypothetically lead to the end of the world. Currently, none of them threaten our planet.

Nevertheless, the US Congress raised the bar back in 2005, ordering NASA specialists to find all asteroids with a radius of 140 m. They are also called “ city killers ”, as they are capable of wiping a metropolis off the face of the Earth. The probability of encountering them in any age is about 1%. Now NASA has found about 40% of them. It will take about another 30 years to discover the remaining 60%.

The construction industry will annually produce up to 2.2 billion tons of waste by 2025. 3D printers can solve the problem, making it possible to build houses with virtually no waste. We tell you who organizes their work
Who is a 3D printing designer in construction?
A construction 3D printing designer is an architect who creates buildings using 3D printers. He selects materials and develops the shapes of future houses taking into account the needs of the customer, location and climate. A specialist models the project in the program, and then machines print it in full size.

Today, 3D printed houses are popping up all over the world. For example, they are in the UAE, the Netherlands, Italy, China, Mexico and even Russia. Research shows that 3D construction simplifies supply chains, design, and makes the entire process more efficient and environmentally friendly.

3D printing designer in construction is one of the professions of the future , which RBC Trends collects in a separate collection. To find out who will be in demand in 5-10 years, follow the link above.

Print of an eco-friendly house made from natural materials in Italy (Video: 3D WASP / YouTube)
What does a 3D printing designer do in construction?
The main task of such a specialist is to take into account and organically combine the capabilities of modern 3D printing, the natural limitations of the area and the desires of clients in one project.

First of all, the designer needs to decide how the building will be erected. It depends on the customers’ plans and logistics. For example, walls and individual parts of a house can be printed separately , and then the finished elements can be assembled together on the construction site. Another option is to place the printer on site and “grow” the house from scratch.

In addition, 3D printers are filled with different “inks” to build houses. These can be environmentally friendly bioplastics , various mixtures of natural raw materials such as clay in combination with rice husks or fiber-reinforced concrete. The availability of materials and their stability in different environmental conditions will influence the designer’s choice.

When everything has been decided on the approach and building materials, the specialist needs to draw the project in 3D modeling software and program the printer. After this, the construction itself begins, which must be monitored at different stages.

Transporting 3D printed building modules (Photo: SOM)
Required Skills
Engineering or architectural education  is a necessary basis for working in the profession. Also, a 3D printing designer in construction needs to be able to handle modern modeling programs and technology . At the same time, such a specialist cannot do without “soft” skills.

Customer focus is necessary to interact with customers as effectively as possible.
Project management is useful for tracking deadlines and proper planning of construction stages.
Lean manufacturing skills and green thinking will help you select cost-effective and environmentally friendly approaches and materials.
Systems thinking and cross-industry communication abilities will be useful in organizing processes and work of different contractors.

Trends and directions of the profession
The use of 3D printing technologies in construction allows us to get rid of many of the problems of modern development. Therefore, we should expect that it will become increasingly integrated into our lives.

The amount of annual waste produced by the construction industry will grow to 2.2 billion tons by 2025, according to Construction Waste Market estimates . 3D design often uses local natural materials and generates virtually no waste.

In the United States, according to the Department of Labor, up to 15 workers die every day as a result of work-related injuries on construction sites. Automation and maximum use of robotics can significantly reduce human losses in the development industry.

Homes designed with 3D printers could be a solution for rapid construction in cases of natural disasters. Modern devices are capable of creating 1 m2 of wall in just five minutes. Moreover, some printed buildings can withstand earthquakes up to magnitude 8 .

Where and when did the profession come from?
The first version of the 3D modeling program ArchiCAD appeared in 1984 . Two years later , the first patent for a 3D printer was registered . The more advanced these technologies became, the more opportunities they gave the world. Today we are increasingly witnessing spot projects in this area, but their success suggests that they will soon become part of everyday life.

The world’s first building entirely created using 3D printing is the Office of the Future , built in the UAE in 2016. At the same time, in China, housing partially constructed using this technology was presented a year earlier. In Russia , the first house entirely printed on a 3D printer appeared in 2017.

How to become a 3D printing designer in construction
There are many bachelor’s programs to start a career in the industry. Among them are architecture, design, construction and the use of modern technologies in these areas. In addition, there are short-term specialized courses. For example, based on companies from the industry or from experts in 3D design.

At the same time, it is not necessary to look for a foreign company to find a job. For example, in Russia 3D development is carried out by Total Kustom, SmartBuild and AMT.